Development and Laboratory Implementation of an Accelerated Testing Method for Vehicle Systems using Time-Dependent Reliability/Durability Principles

Project began January 2012 and was completed December 2015.

Reliability and durability is of paramount importance in acquisition, maintenance and operation of vehicle systems. Experimental estimation of reliability is extremely difficult due to limited resources to perform many tests, limited available field data, and inability to produce long-duration data to capture performance degradation through the vehicle’s lifecycle. Using simulations instead of tests is usually not practical because of the required high fidelity predictions with long duration simulation runs.

Our goal is to develop an accelerated testing method which combines a small number of short-duration tests and a potentially low-fidelity computational model which is calibrated using test data. The simulation model is run for at most a few minutes at discrete times during the vehicle’s lifecycle. The accelerated testing method has been demonstrated in the GVSC Physical Simulation laboratory.

The accelerated testing methodology uses realistic loads as opposed to artificially increased loads for the conventional method, and accounts for degradation phenomena which the conventional method ignores. This approach uses a combination of analytical and experimental methods which can reduce the required experimental resources considerably. Lower fidelity computational models can be used since their accuracy is improved through calibration using field data. While the conventional method is exclusively based on laboratory experiments, the accelerated testing method can use data from short-duration field tests.

In 2012, we initiated research in accelerated testing using analytical and experimental efforts based on fundamental principles of time-dependent reliability and model V&V (validation and verification). Our research has produced new developments in the difficult but very important areas of time-dependent reliability and accelerated testing. This project addressed an immediate need at GVSC in the durability/reliability area of existing and future vehicle platforms with potential applications in condition-based maintenance. We aim to institutionalize all developments at GVSC’s Physical Simulation Laboratory and make them part of its experimental capabilities. It is planned to implement all time-dependent reliability methods in ANSA for durability and optimization (size, shape, topology) under uncertainty applications of large-scale dynamic systems. ANSA is a finite element pre- and post-processor code with analysis capabilities used world-wide and in GVSC, and is a product of BETA CAE Systems USA who is our industry quad member.

Journal Publications:

• J. Li, Z. P. Mourelatos and A. Singh, “Optimal Preventive Maintenance Schedule Based on Lifecycle Cost and Time-dependent Reliability,” SAE International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing, 5(1), 87-95, 2012, doi:10.4271/2012-01-0070. Also in Proceedings of SAE World Congress, Detroit, MI, Paper# 2012-01-0070, 2012.
• D. Drignei, Z.P. Mourelatos, and R. Rebba, “Parameter Screening in Dynamic Computer Model Calibration Using Global Sensitivities,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, 134(8), 081001 (7 pages), 2012.
• Z. Wang, Z.P. Mourelatos, J. Li, I. Baseski, and A. Singh, “Time-dependent Reliability of Dynamic Systems using Subset Simulation with Splitting over a Series of Correlated Time Intervals,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, 136(6), 061008 (12 pages), 2014. Also in Proceedings ASME 2013 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Paper DETC2013-12257, Portland, OR, Aug. 4-7, 2013.
• I. Baseski, D. Drignei, Z.P. Mourelatos and M. Majcher, “A New Metamodeling Approach for Time-dependent Reliability of Dynamic Systems with Random Parameters Excited by Input Random Processes,” SAE Int. J. Mater. Manf. 7(3):530-536, 2014, doi:10.4271/2014-01-0717. Also in Proceedings of SAE World Congress, Detroit, MI, Paper# 2014-01-0717, 2014.
• D. Drignei, Z.P. Mourelatos, M. Kokkolaras and V. Pandey, “Reallocation of Testing Resources in Validating Optimal Designs Using Local Domains,” Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, DOI 10.1007/s00158-014-1086-y, May 2014.
• D. Drignei, I. Baseski, Z.P. Mourelatos and V. Pandey, “A Random Process Metamodel for Time-dependent Reliability of Dynamic Systems,” Proceedings ASME 2014 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Paper DETC2014-34313, Buffalo, NY, Aug. 17-20, 2014. Submitted to the ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, January 2015; currently in revision.
• Z.P. Mourelatos, M. Majcher, V. Pandey and I. Baseski, “Time-dependent Reliability Analysis Using the Total Probability Theorem,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, 137(3), 031405 (8 pages), 2015. Also in Proceedings ASME 2014 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Paper DETC2014-35078, Buffalo, NY, Aug. 17-20, 2014.
• Z. Wang, X. Zhang, H.-Z. Huang and Z.P. Mourelatos, “A Simulation Method to Estimate the Time-varying Failure Rate of Dynamic Systems,” Proceedings ASME 2014 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Paper DETC2014-34326, Buffalo, NY, Aug. 17-20, 2014.
• M. Majcher, Z.P. Mourelatos, V. Geroulas, I. Baseski and A. Singh, “An Efficient Method to Calculate the Failure Rate of Dynamic Systems with Random Parameters using the Total Probability Theorem,” SAE International Journal of Materials & Manufacturing, 8(3), 623-631, 2015. Also in Proceedings of SAE World Congress, Detroit, MI, Paper# 2015-01-0425, 2015.
• Z.P. Mourelatos, M. Majcher and V. Geroulas, “Time-dependent Reliability Analysis of Vibratory Systems with Random Parameters,” in press, ASME Journal of Vibration and Acoustics, February 2016. Proceedings ASME 2015 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Paper DETC2015-46847, Boston, MA, Aug. 2-5, 2015.
• D. Drignei, Z.P. Mourelatos, E. Kosova and I. Baseski, “Time-dependent Reliability using Metamodels with Transformed Random Inputs,” Proceedings ASME 2015 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Paper DETC2015-46823, Boston, MA, Aug. 2-5, 2015.
• D. Drignei, I. Baseski, Z.P. Mourelatos, E. Kosova, “A Random Process Metamodel Approach for Time-Dependent Reliability,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, 138(1), 011403(9 pages), 2015.

Invited Presentations

• Z.P. Mourelatos, “An Accelerated Life Testing Methodology for Vehicle Systems using Time-Dependent Reliability Principles,” Invited Presentation at Chrysler Durability Technical Club, Auburn Hills MI, July 20, 2012.
• Z. Wang, Z.P. Mourelatos, J. Li, A. Singh and I. Baseski, “Application of Subset Simulation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Splitting to Time-dependent Reliability,” presented at SAE International, World Congress, Detroit, MI, April 2013.
• Z.P. Mourelatos, “An Accelerated Testing Method for Dynamic Systems using Time-Dependent Reliability Principles,” Invited Presentation at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, China, August 15, 2016.
• Z.P. Mourelatos, “Methodologies to Characterize a Random Process (e.g. Dynamic Measurement) and Applications in Design,” Invited Presentation at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, China, August 16, 2016.
• Z.P. Mourelatos, “An Accelerated Life Testing Methodology for Vehicle Systems using Time-dependent Reliability Principles,” Invited Presentation, American Society for Quality, Greater Detroit Section, Ann Arbor, MI, October 7, 2013.
• I. Baseski, A. Singh, “Developments on Accelerated Testing,” GVSC Innovation Talk, June 2, 2014.
• Z.P. Mourelatos, “Time-Dependent Reliability in Accelerated Testing and in Design for Reliability, Durability and Maintenability: Advances and Challenges,” Invited Presentation at Chrysler LLC, Quality and Reliability Engineering (QRE) Technical Club, July 10, 2014.